ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDevelopingUpdated 11m ago

Will U.S. Under Secretary of State Sarah B. Rogers leave her role by EOY 2026?

As of Oct 21, 2026, 5:36 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 23.0% (down from 31.5% 24 hours earlier). It had 114.2 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
23.0%
−8.5 percentage points
over 24 hours31.5% → 23.0%

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Stable

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

100 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

114.2 mana

Total volume

250.9 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

A few accounts
42%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

8

Trades

13

over 60 days

Largest order

100 mana

236.6 mana traded across these 13 trades (last 60 days).

A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.

Recent trade activity$236.6 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Sarah B. Rogers officially vacates, resigns, is dismissed, or is replaced in her role as the United States Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Sarah B. Rogers officially vacates, resigns, is dismissed, or is replaced in her role as the United States Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. If she remains in office as of that deadline, the market will resolve to NO. Dual-Role Clarification: In March 2026, Rogers was nominated to concurrently serve as the Chief Executive Officer of the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM). If she is confirmed to the USAGM position but retains her office as the Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs, this does not qualify as leaving her role, and the market will resolve to NO (unless she subsequently vacates the State Department role before the deadline). Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined based on official announcements from the U.S. Department of State or reports from major, reputable news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, The New York Times, or The Washington Post). Background Sarah Brooke Rogers was sworn in as the 11th U.S. Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs on October 10, 2025. In March 2026, President Donald Trump nominated her to head the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM), which oversees Voice of America. State Department spokespersons and media reports have indicated that she is expected to continue serving in her State Department role in a dual capacity even if confirmed to lead the USAGM. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

Why the odds moved

The probability fell 8.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (31.5% → 23.0%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 21, 5:47 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±25 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
7Low
Where the price path tends to go next616 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life ~8h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-8.57D-8.5

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