Will the US or Israel attack Pickaxe Mountain in Iran before Sep 1, 2026

Resolution

Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if, before September 1, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, the United States military (e.g., CENTCOM) and/or the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conduct a kinetic military attack targeting the "Pickaxe Mountain" underground facility (also known as Kuh-e Kolang or Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La) located near Iran's Natanz nuclear complex. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO. Resolution Details: Eligible attacks: The attack must be a kinetic military operation, which includes aerial bombardment, missile strikes, drone strikes, or a direct special forces raid on the physical facility. Exclusions: Non-kinetic operations (such as cyberattacks, electronic warfare, or covert sabotage where neither the US nor Israel claims responsibility or is widely credited by intelligence sources as the direct physical attacker) do not qualify. Sources: Resolution will be based on official statements from the US Department of Defense, the IDF, or reports from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Wall Street Journal, CNN, Axios, or The New York Times). Background Pickaxe Mountain (Kuh-e Kolang), located roughly 1.5 to 2 kilometers south of Iran's Natanz nuclear complex, houses a deeply buried underground tunnel network constructed to withstand heavy aerial bombardment. Western and Israeli intelligence assessments in late 2025 and mid-2026 reported that Iran had transferred thousands of uranium-enrichment centrifuges and a portion of its highly enriched uranium stockpile deep into the granite mountain. In July 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump escalated rhetorical pressure on Tehran, publicly warning that the U.S. was closely monitoring Pickaxe Mountain and planning to hit the area "pretty soon" and "very heavily". This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.