Will the TRIAD trial report that rapamycin significantly extended lifespan in dogs by December 31, 2031?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 4:22 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 45.1% (down from 50.0% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ100 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ2.1K of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
FormingMovement has slowed (4.9 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
MediumModerate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 4.9 percentage points over the last 24 hours (50.0% → 45.1%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2031 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 1, 4:34 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±26 pts.
What's happening
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
- One participant drove 100% of recent flow
- Move not broadly confirmed (1 participants)
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Reacting to news.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ100
Liquidity
Ṁ2.1K
Total volume
Ṁ100
- Category
- Uncategorized
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 45.1%
- 7-day range
- 45.1% – 50.0%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2031