Will "The Social Reckoning" earn more than $23M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 12, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 22, 8:36 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±18 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ50.8
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ0
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
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