Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
38.9 mana
Total volume
929.5 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will "The Social Reckoning" earn more than $23M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend
As of Oct 12, 2026, 12:18 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 1.7% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 38.9 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
1.7%
Little changed over 24 hours
Resolving soon
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
46%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
9
Trades
29
over 51 days
Largest order
100 mana
758.2 mana traded across these 29 trades (last 51 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$758.2 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
The question resolves as yes if the gross domestic box office revenue that the movie "The Social Reckoning" earns in its opening weekend exceeds 23 million US dollars according to https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Social-Reckoning-The-(2026). If The Numbers fail to report the number within two weeks of a movie's release date other credible sources may be considered.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
The question resolves as yes if the gross domestic box office revenue that the movie "The Social Reckoning" earns in its opening weekend exceeds 23 million US dollars according to https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Social-Reckoning-The-(2026). If The Numbers fail to report the number within two weeks of a movie's release date other credible sources may be considered.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 12, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 12, 12:28 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.
Resolving soonLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Resolving soon
Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.
- Resolves in 1 day(s) — end-of-life pricing is mechanically thin
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
7Low
Where the price path tends to go next1174 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~3d
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
38.9 mana
Liquidity
100 mana
Total volume
929.5 mana
- Category
- Other
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 1.7%
- 7-day range
- 1.7% – 2.1%
- Resolves
- Oct 12, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H-0.424H-0.47D-0.4
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