Will the republican win Texas 12th house district by 16% or more?
As of Sep 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 47.6% (down from 50.0% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ1.2K traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ1K of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
FormingMovement has slowed (2.4 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
MediumModerate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 30, 9:10 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.
What's happening
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
- One participant drove 82% of recent flow
- Move not broadly confirmed (3 participants)
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ1.2K
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ0
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 47.6%
- 7-day range
- 47.6% – 50.0%
- Resolves
- Nov 3, 2026