Will the next Claude Opus make a better paper shredding simulator than Claude Fable 5?
Final price
59.4%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Price historyManifold
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
Resolved YES
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 59.4%.
- Final market price
- 59.4%
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 59.4%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 59.4%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will the next Claude Opus make a better paper shredding simulator than Claude Fable 5? The final Manifold price was 59.4%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 59.4%.
- Market data as of
- July 28, 2026 at 2:32 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:40 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 85d ago
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