Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
173.2 mana
Total volume
547.9 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will the Montgomery Blair Science Bowl team receive hoodies for the 2026-2027 year?
As of Oct 13, 2026, 11:14 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 86.7% (up from 54.8% 24 hours earlier). It had 173.2 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
86.7%
+31.9 percentage points
over 24 hours54.8% → 86.7%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (31.9 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
44%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
8
Trades
51
over 84 days
Largest order
50 mana
532 mana traded across these 51 trades (last 84 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$532 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Have not received hoodies since 2021-2022. I can only buy YES on this market, and cannot sell YES shares.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Have not received hoodies since 2021-2022. I can only buy YES on this market, and cannot sell YES shares.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 31.9 percentage points over the last 24 hours (54.8% → 86.7%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJune 30, 2027 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 13, 11:25 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 31.9 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
7Low
Where the price path tends to go next851 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H+31.924H+31.97D+31.9
Related markets
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?
61%YESTrust 52
Polymarket$24.3K 24h
Will small open weight models self replicate as a virus on smart TVs and similar devices before July of 2027?
41%YESTrust 27
Manifold1K mana 24h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene have a heart attack before the end of May 12th 2027?
8%YESTrust 38
Manifold50 mana 24h
Will the President be impeached before Jul 1, 2027?
40%YESTrust 27
Kalshi$1.4K 24h