Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
50 mana
Total volume
257 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene have a heart attack before the end of May 12th 2027?
As of Oct 12, 2026, 9:33 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 8.0% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 50 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
8.0%
Little changed over 24 hours
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
45%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
9
Trades
17
over 118 days
Largest order
50 mana
251.2 mana traded across these 17 trades (last 118 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$251.2 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesMay 12, 2027 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 12, 9:34 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
10Low
Where the price path tends to go next897 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0
Related markets
All Millennium Prize Problems solved before May 2027?
8%YESTrust 50
Manifold253.7 mana 24h
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?
0%YESTrust 57
Polymarket$33.4K 24h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
33%YESTrust 75
Polymarket$58.2K 24h
Will small open weight models self replicate as a virus on smart TVs and similar devices before July of 2027?
44%YESTrust 5
Manifold643.6 mana 24h
Will Team Bardiani start the 2027 Giro d'Italia?
51%YESTrust 12
Manifold400 mana 24h
Will the President be impeached before Jul 1, 2027?
39%YESTrust 17
Kalshi$392.3 24h