Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
50 mana
Total volume
1.4K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
As of Oct 11, 2026, 4:25 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 35.2% (down from 36.9% 24 hours earlier). It had 50 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, with broad trading across many accounts.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
50 mana
Total volume
1.4K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
21
Trades
42
over 50 days
Largest order
150 mana
1.3K mana traded across these 42 trades (last 50 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one bettor.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Resolves YES if the responsible person(s) for the recent GTA VI leaks (CyberLeek) is publicly identified prior to the release of the game (currently expected November 19, 2026). Resolution will be based on a credible source identifying the person(s) responsible for these leaks.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
Resolves YES if the responsible person(s) for the recent GTA VI leaks (CyberLeek) is publicly identified prior to the release of the game (currently expected November 19, 2026). Resolution will be based on a credible source identifying the person(s) responsible for these leaks. Preferred sources would be directly from Rockstar or law enforcement but other sources would also count if it appears unlikely that a better source will present itself quickly and there is little doubt to their accuracy. If its stated there are multiple people that are responsible for the leaks then at the minimum the leader/primary member of the group must be identified for a YES resolution. If the only identified member is explicitly not the main person then it wouldn't resolve YES at that time. I will be the final judge in any situations not covered here. Please ask for needed clarification in advance if you think of something. I will not trade on this market.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 4:35 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±18 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
24h volume
50 mana
Liquidity
1K mana
Total volume
1.4K mana