Will the Great American AI Act (GAAIA) become law in 2026?

GAAIA is a bipartisan bill in Congress being proposed by Jay Obernolte (R-CA) and Lori Trahan (D-MA). Here is an article about the substance by Charlie Bullock: https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/congress-should-do-something--the-case-for-(fixing)-the-great-american-ai-act I can't really figure out what the status is. This market uses an expansive definition of "become law". It resolves YES if the bill is passed and becomes law in 2026, even if it is somewhat watered down or modified, as long as it remains an AI regulation and/or preemption bill. It also resolves YES if the bill's substantive provisions are fully folded into another bill which becomes law, though it resolves NO if only super dumb and toothless provisions make it in. I intend to use my best judgement (and consultation with Claude) to adjudicate this if it becomes controversial. General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.