Will Tennessee Amendment 1 (denying bail for certain offenses) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if Tennessee Amendment 1 (Proposed amendment to Article I, Section 15 (bail)) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Two prongs (Tenn. Const. art. XI §3: 'by a majority of all the citizens of the State voting for Governor, voting in their favor'): (1) more YES than NO votes; (2) YES votes > half of all votes cast for governor (50% + 1). YES must exceed 50% of total gubernatorial votes (sum of all governor candidates / 2); undervotes on the amendment effectively count against it. Method upheld in George v. Hargett, 879 F.3d 711 (6th Cir. 2018). Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Bail may be denied for the listed offenses; courts must record reasons for granting or denying bail in those cases. NO: Art. I §15 unchanged: bail denial limited to capital offenses. Results: resolves on the result certified by Tennessee Secretary of State / State Election Commission (statewide canvass). It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://sos.tn.gov/elections/announcements/2026-proposed-constitutional-amendments