Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
55 mana
Total volume
100.6 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Steam set a new all-time concurrent user record in October 2026?
As of Oct 16, 2026, 8:38 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 77.7% (up from 73.6% 24 hours earlier). It had 55 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
77.7%
+4.1 percentage points
over 24 hours73.6% → 77.7%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (19.4 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
83%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
4
Trades
5
over 14 days
Largest order
50 mana
60 mana traded across these 5 trades (last 14 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$60 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if Steam sets a new all-time record for concurrent users online at any moment between October 3, 2026 00:00 UTC and October 31, 2026 23:59 UTC. Source: SteamDB's "Steam online users" chart (https://steamdb.info/app/753/charts/), which shows the platform's all-time peak and the date it was set.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if Steam sets a new all-time record for concurrent users online at any moment between October 3, 2026 00:00 UTC and October 31, 2026 23:59 UTC. Source: SteamDB's "Steam online users" chart (https://steamdb.info/app/753/charts/), which shows the platform's all-time peak and the date it was set. If the all-time peak shown there was set on a date inside the window, this resolves YES. Valve's own stats page (https://store.steampowered.com/stats/) and major outlet reports of a new record are backups. Context: the record is about 42.3 million, set in March 2026 (reports: 42,318,602). On October 2, 2026, Steam's 48-hour peak was 38.48 million (Valve stats page). Last October, Battlefield 6 pushed Steam to a record. This October has Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 (Oct 23) and Gears of War: E-Day (Oct 6). If SteamDB and Valve disagree, SteamDB wins. Resolves NO if no new record is set in the window.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 4.1 percentage points over the last 24 hours (73.6% → 77.7%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 16, 8:50 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±34 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 19.4 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next640 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityLow· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityHigh irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-19.424H+4.17D+4.1
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