Will someone other than Andy Burnham be UK Prime Minister at any point before 1 August 2028?
As of Oct 5, 2026, 11:53 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 47.0% (up from 37.3% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ51.9 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ100 of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market resolves based on whether any individual other than Andy Burnham formally holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any time during the period from 21 July 2026 up to and including 1 August 2028 (UK local time). Resolves YES if: Any person other than Andy Burnham is formally appointed Prime Minister by the monarch during the resolution window; or Any person other than Andy Burnham serves…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves based on whether any individual other than Andy Burnham formally holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any time during the period from 21 July 2026 up to and including 1 August 2028 (UK local time). Resolves YES if: Any person other than Andy Burnham is formally appointed Prime Minister by the monarch during the resolution window; or Any person other than Andy Burnham serves as Prime Minister, including in an acting, interim, or caretaker capacity, for any duration (even briefly) within the resolution window; or Andy Burnham resigns, dies, is removed, or otherwise ceases to hold office and another individual assumes the role, even temporarily, before the end date. Resolves NO if: Andy Burnham remains Prime Minister continuously throughout the entire period up to and including 1 August 2028, with no other individual holding the office at any point; and No interim, acting, or caretaker Prime Minister other than Andy Burnham serves during this time. Clarifications: There is no minimum duration requirement: even a very brief tenure by another individual qualifies for a YES resolution. “Holding the office” is determined by formal constitutional practice (i.e., appointment by the monarch), not merely media speculation or informal delegation. Temporary incapacity where no other person is formally appointed Prime Minister does not count as a change. If there is ambiguity, resolution should rely on reputable public records (e.g., official UK government announcements, parliamentary records, or widely accepted historical documentation). Resolution timing: This market resolves as soon after a qualifying event occurs (YES), or otherwise on 1 August 2028 at 23:59 UK time (NO).
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 9.7 percentage points over the last 24 hours (37.3% → 47.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The latest eligible start date passesAugust 1, 2028 at 5:00 PM ET
After this date, no new qualifying period can begin under the rules.
- Completion of the qualifying period defined in the rules
Resolution follows once the defined period finishes without a disqualifying event.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 5, 11:56 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±26 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ51.9
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ119.3
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 47.0%
- 7-day range
- 37.3% – 47.0%
- Resolves
- Aug 1, 2028