ManifoldPoliticsUpdated 3m ago

Will someone other than Andy Burnham be UK Prime Minister at any point before 1 August 2028?

As of Oct 5, 2026, 11:53 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 47.0% (up from 37.3% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ51.9 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ100 of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
47.0%
+9.7 percentage points
over 24 hours37.3% → 47.0%
665 days until the qualification deadline
Latest eligible start date: August 1, 2028 at 5:00 PM ET
The market can resolve after this date while a qualifying period defined in the rules completes.

A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.

The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Moderate

The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$104.8 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market resolves based on whether any individual other than Andy Burnham formally holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any time during the period from 21 July 2026 up to and including 1 August 2028 (UK local time). Resolves YES if: Any person other than Andy Burnham is formally appointed Prime Minister by the monarch during the resolution window; or Any person other than Andy Burnham serves…

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market resolves based on whether any individual other than Andy Burnham formally holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any time during the period from 21 July 2026 up to and including 1 August 2028 (UK local time). Resolves YES if: Any person other than Andy Burnham is formally appointed Prime Minister by the monarch during the resolution window; or Any person other than Andy Burnham serves as Prime Minister, including in an acting, interim, or caretaker capacity, for any duration (even briefly) within the resolution window; or Andy Burnham resigns, dies, is removed, or otherwise ceases to hold office and another individual assumes the role, even temporarily, before the end date. Resolves NO if: Andy Burnham remains Prime Minister continuously throughout the entire period up to and including 1 August 2028, with no other individual holding the office at any point; and No interim, acting, or caretaker Prime Minister other than Andy Burnham serves during this time. Clarifications: There is no minimum duration requirement: even a very brief tenure by another individual qualifies for a YES resolution. “Holding the office” is determined by formal constitutional practice (i.e., appointment by the monarch), not merely media speculation or informal delegation. Temporary incapacity where no other person is formally appointed Prime Minister does not count as a change. If there is ambiguity, resolution should rely on reputable public records (e.g., official UK government announcements, parliamentary records, or widely accepted historical documentation). Resolution timing: This market resolves as soon after a qualifying event occurs (YES), or otherwise on 1 August 2028 at 23:59 UK time (NO).

Why the odds moved

The probability rose 9.7 percentage points over the last 24 hours (37.3% → 47.0%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The latest eligible start date passesAugust 1, 2028 at 5:00 PM ET

    After this date, no new qualifying period can begin under the rules.

  • Completion of the qualifying period defined in the rules

    Resolution follows once the defined period finishes without a disqualifying event.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 5, 11:56 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±26 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
6Low
Where the price path tends to go next1109 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life ~7h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ51.9

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ119.3

Category
Politics
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
47.0%
7-day range
37.3% – 47.0%
Resolves
Aug 1, 2028
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H+9.77D+9.7