Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
150 mana
Total volume
1K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
As of Oct 11, 2026, 4:25 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 55.7% (up from 48.6% 24 hours earlier). It had 150 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Source: Manifold price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
150 mana
Total volume
1K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
5
Trades
21
over 58 days
Largest order
208.4 mana
1K mana traded across these 21 trades (last 58 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Resolution criteria Prop G, the "Great Highway for Everyone Act" proposes to close San Francisco's Sunset Dunes park and re-open it (the "Great Highway") to car traffic. This market resolves to YES if prop G receives 40% or less Yes votes (and 60% or more No votes).
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
Resolution criteria Prop G, the "Great Highway for Everyone Act" proposes to close San Francisco's Sunset Dunes park and re-open it (the "Great Highway") to car traffic. This market resolves to YES if prop G receives 40% or less Yes votes (and 60% or more No votes). Resolves NO if >40% Yes votes. The denominator will be the sum of Yes and No votes; under/over votes will not be considered in the percentages. Resolves based on https://sfelections.org preliminary results when the over/under 40% outcome is clear. Resolves N/A if vote percentages are not officially reported, e.g. if the prop was pulled from the ballot. Another market: will the measure pass or fail at all: @/MingweiSamuel/will-san-francisco-voters-pass-the Background https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/great-highway-controversy-to-return-to-s-f-voters-22339743.php "In November 2022, voters overwhelmingly rejected a proposition to allow private cars on the highway everyday." "In November 2024, a majority of voters – 55% – backed closing the highway permanently to cars 24/7. (A majority of voters in westside precincts, where residents regularly use the highway to commute and get around their neighborhood, voted against the measure.) Sunset District supervisor Joel Engardio was eventually recalled for his role in championing closing the highway to create a park." [link preview] The park officially opened in April 2025. In July 2026, proponents of reopening the road submitted 15,626 signatures to qualify the "Great Highway for Everyone Act" for the November 2026 ballot. The proposed measure serves as a compromise that would allow car traffic on the roadway during weekdays while keeping Sunset Dunes Park open on weekends. City departments estimate that transitioning the park back to weekday vehicle use would cost approximately $14 million in infrastructure and signal restorations.
The probability rose 7.1 percentage points over the last 24 hours (48.6% → 55.7%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 4:35 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±23 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
24h volume
150 mana
Liquidity
1K mana
Total volume
1K mana