ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDevelopingUpdated 11m ago

Will SF Prop G to "reopen the Great Highway" LOSE by at least 20 percentage points

As of Oct 11, 2026, 4:25 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 55.7% (up from 48.6% 24 hours earlier). It had 150 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
55.7%
+7.1 percentage points
over 24 hours48.6% → 55.7%

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Stable

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

1K mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

150 mana

Total volume

1K mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

A few accounts
59%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

5

Trades

21

over 58 days

Largest order

208.4 mana

1K mana traded across these 21 trades (last 58 days).

A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.

Recent trade activity$1K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria Prop G, the "Great Highway for Everyone Act" proposes to close San Francisco's Sunset Dunes park and re-open it (the "Great Highway") to car traffic. This market resolves to YES if prop G receives 40% or less Yes votes (and 60% or more No votes).

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria Prop G, the "Great Highway for Everyone Act" proposes to close San Francisco's Sunset Dunes park and re-open it (the "Great Highway") to car traffic. This market resolves to YES if prop G receives 40% or less Yes votes (and 60% or more No votes). Resolves NO if >40% Yes votes. The denominator will be the sum of Yes and No votes; under/over votes will not be considered in the percentages. Resolves based on https://sfelections.org preliminary results when the over/under 40% outcome is clear. Resolves N/A if vote percentages are not officially reported, e.g. if the prop was pulled from the ballot. Another market: will the measure pass or fail at all: @/MingweiSamuel/will-san-francisco-voters-pass-the Background https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/great-highway-controversy-to-return-to-s-f-voters-22339743.php "In November 2022, voters overwhelmingly rejected a proposition to allow private cars on the highway everyday." "In November 2024, a majority of voters – 55% – backed closing the highway permanently to cars 24/7.  (A majority of voters in westside precincts, where residents regularly use the highway to commute and get around their neighborhood, voted against the measure.) Sunset District supervisor Joel Engardio was eventually recalled for his role in championing closing the  highway to create a park." [link preview] The park officially opened in April 2025. In July 2026, proponents of reopening the road submitted 15,626 signatures to qualify the "Great Highway for Everyone Act" for the November 2026 ballot. The proposed measure serves as a compromise that would allow car traffic on the roadway during weekdays while keeping Sunset Dunes Park open on weekends. City departments estimate that transitioning the park back to weekday vehicle use would cost approximately $14 million in infrastructure and signal restorations.

Why the odds moved

The probability rose 7.1 percentage points over the last 24 hours (48.6% → 55.7%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesNovember 9, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 4:35 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±23 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
7Low
Where the price path tends to go next991 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life ~13h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

150 mana

Liquidity

1K mana

Total volume

1K mana

Category
Politics
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
55.7%
7-day range
48.6% – 55.7%
Resolves
Nov 9, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H+7.17D+7.1

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