Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
95 mana
Total volume
104 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
As of Oct 29, 2026, 11:28 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 45.3% (down from 49.9% 24 hours earlier). It had 95 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Source: Manifold price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
95 mana
Total volume
104 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
6
Trades
8
over 30h
Largest order
50 mana
104 mana traded across these 8 trades (last 30h).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the first commercially released generation (or official consumer hardware specification reveal) of Sesame smart glasses includes an optical waveguide display (such as diffractive, reflective, or holographic waveguide optics) capable of projecting visual graphics or text into the wearer’s field of view. This market resolves to NO if: Sesame's first smart glasses launc…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the first commercially released generation (or official consumer hardware specification reveal) of Sesame smart glasses includes an optical waveguide display (such as diffractive, reflective, or holographic waveguide optics) capable of projecting visual graphics or text into the wearer’s field of view. This market resolves to NO if: Sesame's first smart glasses launch without any visual display (e.g., audio/camera-only, similar to Ray-Ban Meta glasses). The glasses use a non-waveguide optical display system (e.g., birdbath optics, prism/curved mirror combiner without a planar waveguide). Sesame officially cancels or shuts down hardware development without launching smart glasses. Resolution will be determined using official product announcements, technical specification sheets, or teardowns from Sesame's official website or major consumer technology reporting (e.g., The Verge, Lowpass, Ars Technica). Background Sesame, founded by former Oculus co-founders Brendan Iribe and Nate Mitchell, develops conversational voice agents (such as Maya, Miles, Simone, and Charlie) and announced plans to release hardware frames Made in Japan targeted for 2027. While the company has positioned the glasses around voice-first AI and premium optical craftsmanship, technical details regarding whether the frames will feature augmented-reality visual displays—such as optical waveguides—or remain an audio- and camera-focused form factor have not yet been disclosed. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
The probability fell 4.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (49.9% → 45.4%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 29, 11:33 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±26 pts.
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.