Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
41.7 mana
Total volume
388.7 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will September 2026 core PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?
As of Oct 17, 2026, 5:49 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 68.4% (up from 52.7% 24 hours earlier). It had 41.7 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
68.4%
+15.8 percentage points
over 24 hours52.7% → 68.4%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (7.1 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
54%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
8
Trades
32
over 71 days
Largest order
59 mana
364.3 mana traded across these 32 trades (last 71 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$364.3 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026 reports that core PCE inflation was 0.3% or higher month-over-month. Use the PCE price index excluding food and energy in the first BEA Personal Income and Outlays release covering September 2026, and use the percent change from the preceding month.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026 reports that core PCE inflation was 0.3% or higher month-over-month. Use the PCE price index excluding food and energy in the first BEA Personal Income and Outlays release covering September 2026, and use the percent change from the preceding month. Resolve NO if the initial September 2026 core PCE price-index month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower, zero, or negative. Do not use headline PCE, current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, CPI, PPI, annualized rates, year-over-year rates, personal income, disposable personal income, personal outlays, saving rate, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial September 2026 release before resolution. If the September 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the September 2026 core PCE price-index month-over-month percent change unless there is no such release by December 4, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_core_pce_price_index_mom": 0.2, "april_2026_core_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.3, "april_2026_pce_price_index_mom": 0.4, "april_2026_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.8, "next_release_at_creation": "Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 scheduled for 2026-06-25 at 08:30 AM Eastern; June 2026 scheduled for 2026-07-30; September 2026 scheduled for 2026-11-04.", "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-05-28"}, "metric": "Core PCE price index percent change from August 2026 to September 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["PCE inflation markets for earlier reference months are prior-reference-month markets, not September 2026 duplicates.", "September 2026 headline PCE inflation uses the all-items PCE price index, while this market excludes food and energy.", "September 2026 headline CPI-U, core CPI-U, PPI, import/export prices, and AHE markets are different statistical releases.", "Current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, personal income, DPI, saving-rate, and outlays markets are not PCE price-index duplicates.", "Headline PCE price-index markets are not duplicates because this market excludes food and energy."], "release_schedule": "BEA release schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026 for 2026-11-04 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026", "series": "PCE price index excluding food and energy", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA core PCE price-index data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy - BEA headline PCE price-index data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index - BEA Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 release: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 15.8 percentage points over the last 24 hours (52.7% → 68.5%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The scheduled event takes placeNovember 4, 2026 at 7:25 AM ET
The contract resolves on the event's outcome.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 17, 5:59 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±29 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 7.1 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
12Low
Where the price path tends to go next560 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~7h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H+7.124H+15.87D+15.8
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