Will Russia or Belarus attack Poland in the next year?
As of Oct 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 16.4% (up from 13.8% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ18 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ100 of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
MediumModerate resolution risk, driven mainly by no threshold or deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
https://archive.is/BkISd Resolves YES if any of the following occur: Russian or Belarussian soldiers cross into Polish territory without explicit Polish permission Critical Polish infrastructure is targeted in a kinetic attack with Russian or Belarussian missiles or drones A "simulated air strike" from Russia or Belarus in which Poland activates its air defenses Resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. "P…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
https://archive.is/BkISd Resolves YES if any of the following occur: Russian or Belarussian soldiers cross into Polish territory without explicit Polish permission Critical Polish infrastructure is targeted in a kinetic attack with Russian or Belarussian missiles or drones A "simulated air strike" from Russia or Belarus in which Poland activates its air defenses Resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. "Plausibly deniable" events count, e.g. soldiers crossing the border due to a "GPS error" would still qualify. Incomplete or thwarted attacks count, e.g. a missile attack which is shot down and which credible sources assess was targeting critical infrastructure in Poland, would still qualify.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJuly 3, 2027 at 1:15 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 4, 12:02 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ18
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ728
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 16.4%
- 7-day range
- 13.8% – 16.4%
- Resolves
- Jul 3, 2027