Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
319.1 mana
Total volume
2.7K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?
As of Nov 4, 2026, 7:57 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 4.4% (down from 25.1% 24 hours earlier). It had 319.1 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
4.4%
−20.7 percentage points
over 24 hours25.1% → 4.4%
Moving fastBig move, weak backingNot live — snapshot Nov 4, 7:57 AM ET
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
51%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
7
Trades
73
over 44 days
Largest order
58.7 mana
215.2 mana traded across these 73 trades (last 44 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$215.2 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if after the 2026 United States elections members of the Republican party have won at least 51 seats in the Senate, or 50 seats with a Republican Vice President for tie-breaking purposes. Resolves NO otherwise.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if after the 2026 United States elections members of the Republican party have won at least 51 seats in the Senate, or 50 seats with a Republican Vice President for tie-breaking purposes. Resolves NO otherwise. If a politically independent/third-party senator is elected, they would count as a Republican for the purposes of this market if they are widely expected to caucus with the Republican party.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 20.7 percentage points over the last 24 hours (25.1% → 4.4%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 1, 2026 at 5:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Nov 4, 9:26 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next739 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Thin-liquidity spike1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~3h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-20.77D-20.7
Related markets
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?
17%YESTrust 54
Polymarket$1.8M 24h
Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
0%YESTrust 55
Polymarket$111K 24h
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
86%YESTrust 54
Polymarket$3.5M 24h
Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026?
1%YESTrust 14
Polymarket$130.7K 24h
Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2027?
3%YESTrust 64
Kalshi$26.3K 24h
Will the President be impeached before Feb 1, 2027?
15%YESTrust 52
Kalshi$5.2K 24h