Will Mitch McConnell's Senate seat be vacant Christmas Eve 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 11:58 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 13.7% (down from 19.8% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ50 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ100 of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves based on Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if, on December 24, 2026 (Christmas Eve), Mitch McConnell's Class II U.S. Senate seat representing Kentucky is officially vacant.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves based on Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if, on December 24, 2026 (Christmas Eve), Mitch McConnell's Class II U.S. Senate seat representing Kentucky is officially vacant. It will resolve to NO if the seat is occupied by Mitch McConnell or any successor who has been officially sworn in to fill the seat by that date. A vacancy exists if Mitch McConnell has died, resigned, been expelled, or otherwise officially vacated his office before December 24, 2026, and no successor has been officially sworn in and seated in the U.S. Senate to replace him by 11:59 PM EST on December 24, 2026. If Mitch McConnell remains the sitting Senator for Kentucky as of December 24, 2026, this market will resolve to NO. The resolution of this market will be verified using the official website of the U.S. Senate (https://www.senate.gov/) or the Biographical Directory of the United States Congress (Just a moment... ). Major, reputable news organizations (such as the Associated Press or Reuters) may also be used as verification sources if official government websites are not updated in a timely manner. Background Mitch McConnell announced in February 2025 that he would not seek re-election in the November 2026 midterms, planning instead to complete his term, which officially ends on January 3, 2027. In April 2024, Kentucky's legislature enacted House Bill 622, which stripped the Governor of Kentucky of the power to make temporary gubernatorial appointments in the event of a U.S. Senate vacancy, instead requiring a special election. If McConnell's seat is vacated before his term naturally expires, the seat could remain vacant until a special election is organized and won, or until the next term officially commences. Concern over McConnell's health has grown following his hospitalization in mid-June 2026. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output. [link preview]
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 6.1 percentage points over the last 24 hours (19.8% → 13.7%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 24, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 3, 12:00 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±22 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ50
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ236
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 13.7%
- 7-day range
- 13.7% – 19.8%
- Resolves
- Dec 24, 2026