Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
46.5 mana
Total volume
775.6 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Mitch McConnell resign or die before the end of his term in 2027?
As of Oct 11, 2026, 6:25 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 8.0% (down from 10.2% 24 hours earlier). It had 46.5 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
8.0%
−2.2 percentage points
over 24 hours10.2% → 8.0%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (2.2 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
MediumWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
74%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
7
Trades
112
over 44 days
Largest order
30 mana
485.7 mana traded across these 112 trades (last 44 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$485.7 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
(Identical market to: source market)
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
(Identical market to: source market)
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 4, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 6:34 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.
One big traderLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
One big trader
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
- One participant drove 74% of recent flow
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
9Low
Where the price path tends to go next1009 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~22h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
46.5 mana
Liquidity
100 mana
Total volume
775.6 mana
- Category
- Other
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 8.0%
- 7-day range
- 8.0% – 10.2%
- Resolves
- Jan 4, 2027
Change (pts)1H0.06H-2.224H-2.27D-2.2
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