Will Maryland Question 1 (funding state employee arbitration awards) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if Maryland Question 1 (Arbitration Reform for State Employees Act of 2026) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Majority of votes cast on the question (Md. Const. art. XIV, sec. 1) Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: The Governor must include money in the proposed State budget to pay for agreements with State employees (wages, hours, benefits, other terms), whether negotiated or decided by a neutral decision-maker. NO: The law about funding agreements between the State and State employees stays the same. Results: resolves on the result certified by State Board of Canvassers certifies; Governor proclaims adopted amendments. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://www.elections.maryland.gov/elections/2026/ballot_questions.html