Will Manifold have a mana purchase goal meter?
As of Sep 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 11.0% (little changed over 24 hours). It had Ṁ29 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ1K of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if the Manifold site integrates some sort of meter that fills when anybody buys mana. The meter must have goals that trigger cool or interesting things to happen when some amount of purchased mana is reached.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if the Manifold site integrates some sort of meter that fills when anybody buys mana. The meter must have goals that trigger cool or interesting things to happen when some amount of purchased mana is reached. Multiple goals with different purchase levels are allowed. This meter should not be tailored to specific users; it must be a shared tracker for everybody. Otherwise, if this condition is not met before market close (Sep 30, 2026 at 9:30pm ET), resolves NO. This market will not extend.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 30, 2026 at 9:30 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 30, 9:11 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±18 pts.
What's happening
Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.
- Resolves in 0 day(s) — end-of-life pricing is mechanically thin
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ29
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ2.3K
- Category
- Uncategorized
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 11.0%
- 7-day range
- 11.0% – 11.2%
- Resolves
- Sep 30, 2026