Will Louisiana Amendment 5 (retirement system debt payment order) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if Louisiana Amendment 5 (Do you support an amendment to authorize a state retirement system to apply any nonrecurring state monies it receives to any of its unfunded accrued liability rather than requiring application to its oldest unfunded accrued liability? (Amends Article VII, Section 10(D)(2)(b)(iii))) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Simple majority of electors voting on the amendment statewide (La. Const. art. XIII §1(C)); no local-majority requirement. Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: State retirement systems may apply nonrecurring state money to any part of their unfunded accrued liability. NO: Systems must keep applying such money to their oldest amortization bases first. Results: resolves on the result certified by Secretary of State verifies, compiles and promulgates returns (La. R.S. 18:574(D)); Governor proclaims adoption (Const. art. XIII §1(C)).. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://www.sos.la.gov/media/jo2die1s/proposed-constitutional-amendments-2026-nov.pdf