Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
1.5K mana
Total volume
3.7K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Jonas Vingegaard start another race for Team Visma | Lease a Bike before 2028?*
As of Oct 31, 2026, 12:08 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 94.7% (up from 89.7% 24 hours earlier). It had 1.5K mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
94.7%
+5.1 percentage points
over 24 hours89.7% → 94.7%
Big move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (5.1 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
68%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
8
Trades
17
over 103 days
Largest order
1.5K mana
3.7K mana traded across these 17 trades (last 103 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$3.7K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves Yes if Jonas Vingegaard starts a race for Team Visma | Lease a Bike before 2028-01-01. The race must be a UCI road race, for example a "post-Tour crit" would not count, even if it is a UCI event.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves Yes if Jonas Vingegaard starts a race for Team Visma | Lease a Bike before 2028-01-01. The race must be a UCI road race, for example a "post-Tour crit" would not count, even if it is a UCI event. He has to be riding for that team, not for a national team or etc. He has to take the start, DNS doesn't count. Resolves No promptly when any of the following happen: Announces retirement before riding any races and also reaches the retirement date without starting a race, or announces that he would not start any race Rides a race for another team before riding for Team Visma | Lease a Bike If there is any other weird situation just ask but if it becomes impossible for him to start for Team Visma | Lease a Bike for any reason, I'll be resolving No promptly. Just to reinforce one more time: UCI level professional criterium races such as "Singapore Criterium" do not count for this market. It has to be a "road race" or "time trial" of the road discipline.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 5.1 percentage points over the last 24 hours (89.7% → 94.8%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 31, 12:21 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±24 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 5.1 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
- Flow one-directional across 8 participants (broad, not a single order)
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
33Low
Where the price path tends to go next520 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~16h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H+5.124H+5.17D+5.1
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