Will James Talarico be leading by 3% or more in the upcoming YouGov Poll?
The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Last probability before deadline
- 54.8%
- Event deadline
- September 21, 2026 at 6:11 PM ET
- Venue status
- closed
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will James Talarico be leading by 3% or more in the upcoming YouGov Poll? The last traded Manifold probability before the deadline was 54.8%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Market data as of
- September 21, 2026 at 6:19 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 21, 2026 at 8:22 PM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- September 21, 2026 at 6:11 PM ET
- Market status
- Awaiting resolution
- Data updated
- 2h ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves yes if James Talarico is up by 3.00% or more, using likely voters if available, if not, use registered voters. [image]
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves yes if James Talarico is up by 3.00% or more, using likely voters if available, if not, use registered voters. [image]
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ10
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ10
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 54.8%
- Resolves
- Sep 21, 2026