ProbCastOdds Reliability
TodayTop MoversMarketsWhat ChangedAccuracyWatchlist
⌘K
Checking…
Hot Markets
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?45%▼13.2Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?5%▼18.0US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?84%▲11.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?59%▲10.0Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?13%▲5.5Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?40%▼25.0US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?90%▲8.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?40%▲10.0Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?19%▼11.2Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?50%▲16.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?12%▲6.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?16%▲7.0Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $86.50 on August 27, 2026?16%▼48.9US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?77%▲7.6Will the US announce materially tougher Iran sanctions within 14‑days of Scott Bessent’s “Economic D‑Day” FT op‑ed?29%▼16.0Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in August?9%▼10.0
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?45%▼13.2Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?5%▼18.0US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?84%▲11.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?59%▲10.0Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?13%▲5.5Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?40%▼25.0US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?90%▲8.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?40%▲10.0Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?19%▼11.2Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?50%▲16.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?12%▲6.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?16%▲7.0Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $86.50 on August 27, 2026?16%▼48.9US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?77%▲7.6Will the US announce materially tougher Iran sanctions within 14‑days of Scott Bessent’s “Economic D‑Day” FT op‑ed?29%▼16.0Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in August?9%▼10.0
Home/Geopolitics/Will Iran strike anything before October 2026?
ManifoldGeopoliticsUpdated 9m ago

Will Iran strike anything before October 2026?

Market probability
86.2%
+15.2 percentage points
over 24 hours71.0% → 86.2%
35 days until the event deadline
Deadline: September 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET

The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.

The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume. The probability moved another 2.7 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Weak

The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Unsettled

The probability moved another 2.7 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$107.8 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

Why the odds moved

The probability rose 15.2 percentage points over the last 24 hours (71.0% → 86.2%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 26, 4:11 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±28 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ170

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ170

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Manifold
Change (pts)1H+2.76H+15.224H+15.27D+15.2
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

0/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement99

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity52

Related markets

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

19%YESTrust 73
Polymarket$76.3K 24h

Will Daniel Lord still be living in a Tesla by the end of October?

64%YESTrust 22
ManifoldṀ39.6 24h

Bitcoin reaches 90k USD at any point before October

41%YESTrust 27
ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Probability moved 15.2 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
13Low
Where the price path tends to go next849 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~5h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Trending.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Open interest
—
Current probability
86.2%
7-day range
71.0% – 86.2%
Resolves
Sep 30, 2026

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

0/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+36
  • Price steadiness+0
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Limited history-8
  • Big move, weak support-10
Trust score0 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Manifold

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

ManifoldṀ20 24h

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

16%YESTrust 90
Polymarket$287.8K 24h

US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?

96%YESTrust 71
Polymarket$227K 24h

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

3%YESTrust 74
Polymarket$85.2K 24h
Macro / Fed
Politics
AI / Tech
Geopolitics

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]