ManifoldUncategorizedUpdated 13m ago

Will I still have a notable injury to my left knee after a year

As of Oct 3, 2026, 11:40 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 43.6% (down from 44.2% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ150 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ10K of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
43.6%
−0.7 percentage points
over 24 hours44.2% → 43.6%
203 days until trading closes
Deadline: April 25, 2027 at 12:00 PM ET

A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.

The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Moderate

The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

Medium

Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no threshold or deadline.

Recent trade activity$1.6K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

On April 25th I fell of my bike and banged my knee on the pavement. As far as the people I've seen can tell, nothing is broken, nothing is torn, it's just bruised up real bad.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

On April 25th I fell of my bike and banged my knee on the pavement. As far as the people I've seen can tell, nothing is broken, nothing is torn, it's just bruised up real bad. I'm currently using a cane, not all the time but a fair bit. I can walk fine without the cane, but if I walk around without it all morning, I feel it in the afternoon. I'm also taking stairs using only my good leg to go up and down -- good leg goes up, bad leg joins it; bad leg goes down, good leg joins it. This market will close partially on vibes, but -- if I am still ever using my cane, rather than having left it in a closet, that'll be a YES. If I'm still taking stairs in my current asymmetric manner, that'll be a YES. If I feel the need to hold off on physical activity to keep my left knee from flaring up at the end of the day, that'll probably be a YES. I will resolve NO at any time between now and market close if I feel that I have pretty much fully recovered. I feel this is correct given the wording ("will I still have" implies that the injury exists throughout the intervening time, so if it goes away that's a NO) If some new injury occurs (say I'm in a car crash tomorrow and break my leg or something) such that I'm still ~disabled at market close, but it's unclear that this is because of the original fall, I will likely resolve N/A. I consider this outcome pretty unlikely. Edited: I originally incorrectly wrote that the crash happened in May, rather than in April

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesApril 25, 2027 at 12:00 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 3, 11:53 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
8Low
Where the price path tends to go next351 observed
  • Choppy / mean-reverting88%
  • Stable consensus5%
  • Illiquid / quiet4%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4d
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ150

Liquidity

Ṁ10K

Total volume

Ṁ1.6K

Category
Uncategorized
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
43.6%
7-day range
43.6% – 44.2%
Resolves
Apr 25, 2027
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-0.77D-0.7

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