Will I still be active on Manifold in 1 year?
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if I perform at least one publicly verifiable action on Manifold during the 30-day period leading up to June 13, 2027 (specifically, from May 14, 2027, through June 13, 2027, UTC). Publicly verifiable actions include: Placing a bet Creating a market Writing a comment or reply Creating or editing a post Any other activity that registers publicly on my Manifold user p…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if I perform at least one publicly verifiable action on Manifold during the 30-day period leading up to June 13, 2027 (specifically, from May 14, 2027, through June 13, 2027, UTC). Publicly verifiable actions include: Placing a bet Creating a market Writing a comment or reply Creating or editing a post Any other activity that registers publicly on my Manifold user profile activity log This market will resolve to NO if my profile shows no such public activity during this 30-day window. If my account is deleted, permanently banned, or otherwise inaccessible at the time of resolution, this market will resolve to NO. Background Manifold is a prediction market platform where user retention can be highly variable, influenced by platform updates, personal interest, and community dynamics. This market acts as a self-forecasting tool to predict my long-term engagement and whether I will remain an active participant on the platform one year from now.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJune 13, 2027 at 3:58 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 14, 9:47 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume