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ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 36d ago

Will I run across someone I consider a celebrity at San Diego Comic-Con besides Lou Ferrigno? (I have before.)

Final price
56.0%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 56.0%.

Final market price
56.0%
Event deadline
July 26, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will I run across someone I consider a celebrity at San Diego Comic-Con besides Lou Ferrigno? (I have before.) The final Manifold price was 56.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 56.0%.

Market data as of
July 31, 2026 at 8:31 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:05 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
July 26, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
36d ago

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if I personally run across someone I consider to be a celebrity (other than Lou Ferrigno) during San Diego Comic-Con 2026, which runs from Preview Night on July 22 through the end of the convention on July 26, 2026. This includes encounters inside the San Diego Convention Center or at nearby off-site events in downtown San Diego.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if I personally run across someone I consider to be a celebrity (other than Lou Ferrigno) during San Diego Comic-Con 2026, which runs from Preview Night on July 22 through the end of the convention on July 26, 2026. This includes encounters inside the San Diego Convention Center or at nearby off-site events in downtown San Diego. This market will resolve to NO if I do not encounter any such individuals, or if my only celebrity encounter is with Lou Ferrigno. Because this market depends on my personal threshold of who counts as a "celebrity" and my own physical encounters, it will resolve based entirely on my honest, first-person report following the convention. I will post an update explaining whom I ran across (if anyone) to justify the resolution. Background San Diego Comic-Con (SDCC) 2026 takes place from July 23 to July 26. The convention draws over 135,000 attendees, including hundreds of high-profile actors, artists, and creators. While many celebrities are scheduled for official panels, spontaneous encounters on the show floor, in nearby hotels, or around the Gaslamp Quarter are relatively common. Lou Ferrigno is a frequent, well-known fixture of the convention circuit and is explicitly excluded from counting toward a "YES" resolution for this market. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ0

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ200.8

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
56.0%
Resolves
Jul 26, 2026

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