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Home/Macro / Fed/Will I qualify for RMM 2027?
ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 11m ago

Will I qualify for RMM 2027?

Market probability
82.3%
Little changed over 24 hours
194 days until the event deadline
Deadline: February 28, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET

No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.

The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Moderate

The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$3.7K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

I am part of the USA TST group for 2027 IMO. TST cycle 2026: 700 700 720 77707 270776 TSTST 2026: 770 770 770

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

I am part of the USA TST group for 2027 IMO. TST cycle 2026: 700 700 720 77707 270776 TSTST 2026: 770 770 770

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesFebruary 28, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 18, 1:56 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ20

Liquidity

Ṁ1K

Total volume

Ṁ3.9K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Change (pts)1H0.06H+0.324H+0.37D+0.3
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

42/ 100 · Watch

Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement7

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity49

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
16Low
Where the price path tends to go next905 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~3d
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Current probability
82.3%
7-day range
82.0% – 82.3%
Resolves
Feb 28, 2027

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

42/100 · Watch

Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+37
  • Price steadiness+28
  • Thin liquidity-20
Trust score42 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Manifold

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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