Loading dashboard…
Loading dashboard…
Loading market detail…
Currently 75% YES, flat over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a watch-level move on mixed conditions (Trust 48/100).
Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±15 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
I’m planning to attempt the route as described by Andrew Skurka with two friends in August 2026. We’re planning to carry enough food to be out for up to 9 days. https://andrewskurka.com/adventures/wind-river-high-route/ Will I complete it in one continuous trip this summer? All three of us have considerable experience with hiking, rock climbing, mountaineering, and route-finding. The same two friends and I attempted Steve Roper’s Sierra High Route together in 2020 and got humbled. We were unable to complete route as planned and had to pivot. Comparable trips I’ve previously completed include the Escalante Overland Route as described by Steve Allen (split across 2 separate trips in 2022 and 2025) and Alan Dixon’s Southern Sierra High Route (2021, completed alone). Potential obstacles include injury, illness, weather, wildfire/smoke, lack of my own or part members’ fitness, etc. This type of objective is said to be closer to mountaineering than traditional backpacking on developed trails, since so many external factors outside of our control can disproportionately disrupt the trip.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
LOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketDepth of the order book and volume
Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Low resolution risk, driven mainly by no threshold or deadline.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]