Will Google Antigravity be discontinued by EOY 2027?
As of Oct 6, 2026, 1:43 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 17.5% (down from 20.8% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ55 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ100 of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Data is not live — latest snapshot Oct 6, 1:43 AM ET
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if, on or before the listed date, Google officially announces the discontinuation, sunsetting, deprecation, or shutdown of the "Google Antigravity" platform, or fully shuts down access to the service. If Google folds the functionality into another existing product (such as Project IDX or Gemini Code Assist) and explicitly retires, deprecates, or shuts down the stand…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if, on or before the listed date, Google officially announces the discontinuation, sunsetting, deprecation, or shutdown of the "Google Antigravity" platform, or fully shuts down access to the service. If Google folds the functionality into another existing product (such as Project IDX or Gemini Code Assist) and explicitly retires, deprecates, or shuts down the standalone "Google Antigravity" brand, applications, CLI, and SDK, this market will resolve to YES. Google Antigravity is an "agent-first" software development platform. Originally launched in late 2025 as a VS Code-based "Agentic IDE", Google restructured the service at Google I/O 2026 into "Antigravity 2.0," transitioning it into a standalone desktop orchestration application, CLI, and SDK designed to manage multiple local AI agents in parallel. While Google has actively funnelled other developer tools into the platform—such as transitioning Gemini CLI into Antigravity CLI and sunsetting Firebase Studio in favor of Antigravity—frequent UI overhauls, the removal of the original integrated IDE, and shifting subscription tiers have fueled community discussion regarding the product's long-term sustainability and whether it will join the list of discontinued Google projects. (Identical market to: source market)
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 3.3 percentage points over the last 24 hours (20.8% → 17.5%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 6, 2:03 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ55
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ201.3
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 17.5%
- 7-day range
- 17.5% – 20.8%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026