Will Florida Amendment 1 (Budget Stabilization Fund changes) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if Florida Amendment 1 (Budget Stabilization Fund) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: 60% of votes cast on the measure (Fla. Const. art. XI §5(e): 'approved by vote of at least sixty percent of the electors voting on the measure') Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Fund cap rises from 10% to 25% of general revenue; Legislature must transfer the lesser of $750M or the amount needed to reach 25% each year unless conditions are met; withdrawals allowed for critical state needs. NO: Current 10% cap and existing fund rules stay in place. Results: resolves on the result certified by Florida Elections Canvassing Commission (statewide results); Dept. of State assigns amendment numbers. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bill/2025/5019