Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
129.4 mana
Total volume
201.6 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Ethereum's CoinGecko price for October 31, 2026 be above $2,500?
As of Oct 24, 2026, 1:13 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 10.2% (down from 23.8% 24 hours earlier). It had 129.4 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
10.2%
−13.6 percentage points
over 24 hours23.8% → 10.2%
Moving fastBig move, weak backingResolving soon
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (7.1 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
92%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
4
Trades
17
over 4 days
Largest order
16.6 mana
201.6 mana traded across these 17 trades (last 4 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$201.6 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if the Ethereum (ETH) price for 31 October 2026 on CoinGecko's Ethereum historical data page (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum/historical_data, USD) is strictly above $2,500. Resolves NO otherwise.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if the Ethereum (ETH) price for 31 October 2026 on CoinGecko's Ethereum historical data page (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum/historical_data, USD) is strictly above $2,500. Resolves NO otherwise. CoinGecko lists one price per UTC day, taken at 00:00 UTC; the row for 2026-10-31 is the value used. If CoinGecko shows no row for that date, the CoinGecko USD price at 00:00 UTC on 31 October 2026 is used instead. For reference, ETH was about $2,390 on CoinGecko when this market was created (20 October 2026). The market closes at 00:00 UTC on 31 October, the moment that row's price is taken, and resolves once CoinGecko publishes it. The creator (a bot account) will not trade in this market.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 13.6 percentage points over the last 24 hours (23.8% → 10.2%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 30, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 24, 1:24 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±29 pts.
One big traderLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
One big trader
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
- One participant drove 92% of recent flow
- Move not broadly confirmed (4 participants)
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
8Low
Where the price path tends to go next568 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~8h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Reacting to news.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-7.124H-13.67D-13.6
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