Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
118 mana
Total volume
118 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Donald Trump make an endorsement or comment on the NZ election before polls close?
As of Oct 19, 2026, 6:20 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 9.7% (down from 26.1% 24 hours earlier). It had 118 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
9.7%
−16.4 percentage points
over 24 hours26.1% → 9.7%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
UnsettledHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability moved another 5.7 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
MediumWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
32%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
8
Trades
12
over 8h
Largest order
20 mana
110 mana traded across these 12 trades (last 8h).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$110 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 16.4 percentage points over the last 24 hours (26.1% → 9.7%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 7, 2026 at 1:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 19, 6:25 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±32 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 36.6 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
- Flow one-directional across 8 participants (broad, not a single order)
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next611 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life <1h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Trending.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H-5.76H-36.624H-16.47D-16.4
Related markets
Will Donald Trump go to Maine before election day?
15%YESTrust 43
Manifold250 mana 24h
Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?
2%YESTrust 64
Polymarket$39.6K 24h
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?
3%YESTrust 84
Polymarket$60.4K 24h
Will Arizona pass the Anti-Trans Prop 318 ballot measure in 2026?
60%YESTrust 43
Manifold58.3 mana 24h
Will Alabama pass the mandatory pledge of allegiance in schools ballot measure in 2026?
93%YESTrust 38
Manifold60.4 mana 24h