Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
28.3 mana
Total volume
301.1 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 12:34 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 13.0% (down from 16.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 28.3 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
13.0%
−3 percentage points
over 24 hours16.0% → 13.0%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
67%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
9
Trades
78
over 82 days
Largest order
11.5 mana
299.5 mana traded across these 78 trades (last 82 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$299.5 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
The market resolves “Yes” if Donald Trump either passes away or becomes so ill that he is officially unable to continue in his role, leading to someone else taking over his responsibilities
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
The market resolves “Yes” if Donald Trump either passes away or becomes so ill that he is officially unable to continue in his role, leading to someone else taking over his responsibilities
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 3.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (16.0% → 13.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 19, 2029 at 5:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 20, 12:47 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.
One big traderLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
One big trader
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
- One participant drove 67% of recent flow
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
10Low
Where the price path tends to go next595 observed
- Illiquid / quiet97%
- Thin-liquidity spike1%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~24h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-3.07D-3.0
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