Will Deportes Temuco win at least five of the last 15 games of the season? (Caixun Primera B)
As of Oct 4, 2026, 8:41 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 9.0% (down from 37.1% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ228.5 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ100 of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
FormingMovement has slowed (28.1 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Deportes Temuco wins at least five of their 15 matches in the Second Wheel (Segunda Rueda) of the 2026 Liga de Ascenso Caixun (Primera B de Chile) regular season. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Deportes Temuco wins at least five of their 15 matches in the Second Wheel (Segunda Rueda) of the 2026 Liga de Ascenso Caixun (Primera B de Chile) regular season. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO. Definition of Games: The "last 15 games" refers explicitly to Matchdays 16 through 30 of the 30-game regular season. Rescheduled or postponed fixtures originally belonging to this set of 15 games will be tracked and counted when they are eventually played. Eligible Competitions: Only regular season league matches in the 2026 Liga de Ascenso Caixun count. Games played in other tournaments (e.g., Copa Chile) or any post-season promotion play-offs (Liguilla de Ascenso) do not count. Definition of Win: A match is considered a win if Deportes Temuco is the victorious team at the conclusion of standard regulation time (including injury/stoppage time). Truncated Season Rule: If the regular season is permanently shortened and the Segunda Rueda is not completed: The market resolves YES if Deportes Temuco has already achieved 5 wins in the Segunda Rueda matches played. The market resolves NO if they have not achieved 5 wins and it is mathematically impossible to reach 5 wins with the remaining games. The market will resolve N/A only if the season is aborted and a determination cannot be made. Sources for Verification Soccerway Deportes Temuco Profile Flashscore Liga de Ascenso Scores Asociación Nacional de Fútbol Profesional (ANFP) Official Site Background Deportes Temuco competes in the Liga de Ascenso Caixun, the second division of Chilean professional football. The league structure consists of a double round-robin tournament featuring 16 teams and spanning 30 matchdays. At the conclusion of the first half of the season (Primera Rueda, Matchdays 1–15), Deportes Temuco stood in 4th place with 23 points, registering 6 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses. Following a winter break and Copa Chile fixtures, the second half of the season (Segunda Rueda) commenced in late July 2026. This market tracks whether the club can sustain its form and secure at least five wins in the remaining 15 matches of the league campaign.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 28.1 percentage points over the last 24 hours (37.1% → 9.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The scheduled event takes placeNovember 30, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract resolves on the event's outcome.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 4, 8:46 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.
What's happening
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 28.1 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ228.5
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ445.2
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 9.0%
- 7-day range
- 9.0% – 37.1%
- Resolves
- Nov 30, 2026