Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
5K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
13.5K mana
Total volume
13.5K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Democrats win EVERY Cook Political Report Likely D Seat?
As of Nov 4, 2026, 9:17 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 93.7% (up from 69.2% 24 hours earlier). It had 13.5K mana traded in the past 24 hours and 5K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
93.7%
+24.5 percentage points
over 24 hours69.2% → 93.7%
Moving fastBig move, weak backingResolving soon
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
98%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
6
Trades
10
over 30h
Largest order
8K mana
13.5K mana traded across these 10 trades (last 30h).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$13.5K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve YES if Democrats win EVERY seat in the LIKELY D category, which there are 18 races in. Resolves no if they lose at least one.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve YES if Democrats win EVERY seat in the LIKELY D category, which there are 18 races in. Resolves no if they lose at least one. The final Cook Political Report House Ratings are below. This market will resolve based on Associated Press projections unless a race is too close and we need to wait for official results. The image below is final and if any subsequent ratings changes are made, they will be ignored. [image]
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 24.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (69.2% → 93.7%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 9, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Nov 4, 9:26 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±31 pts.
One big traderLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
One big trader
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
- One participant drove 98% of recent flow
- Move not broadly confirmed (6 participants)
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
1Low
Where the price path tends to go next128 observed
- Thin-liquidity spike81%
- Choppy / mean-reverting13%
- Trend continuation4%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~3h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H+24.57D+24.5
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