Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
125 mana
Total volume
1K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Democrats US House Popular vote % be 12x or more the US Gas Price average on election day?
As of Oct 29, 2026, 5:58 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 72.7% (up from 69.4% 24 hours earlier). It had 125 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
72.7%
+3.3 percentage points
over 24 hours69.4% → 72.7%
Resolving soon
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (3.3 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
46%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
12
Trades
29
over 45 days
Largest order
100 mana
1K mana traded across these 29 trades (last 45 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$1K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if democrats get 12x the us average gas price or more in the us house popular vote. https://gasprices.aaa.com/ On election day, Tuesday November 3 2026, I will 12x the us average gas price for the day.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if democrats get 12x the us average gas price or more in the us house popular vote. https://gasprices.aaa.com/ On election day, Tuesday November 3 2026, I will 12x the us average gas price for the day. Eg. If the average is $4.2000, then democrats must get 50.4% of the vote or higher. If the average is $5, democrats must get 60% of the popular vote in the us house elections. Here is democrats 2024 vote percent for example, the value on Wikipedia for 2026, which comes from official stats will be used. [image]
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 3.3 percentage points over the last 24 hours (69.4% → 72.7%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 29, 6:04 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±24 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 3.3 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
- Flow one-directional across 12 participants (broad, not a single order)
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
24Low
Where the price path tends to go next498 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~25h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H+3.324H+3.37D+3.3