Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
150 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
1 mana
Total volume
15.3K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Democratic candidate James Talarico win Tarrant County in the 2026 TX-SEN election?
As of Oct 31, 2026, 7:15 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 96.2% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 1 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 150 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
96.2%
Little changed over 24 hours
Stale priceResolving soonNot live — snapshot Oct 31, 7:15 AM ET
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — though most recent trading came from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
88%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
14
Trades
54
over 45 days
Largest order
25K mana
110.4K mana traded across these 54 trades (last 45 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$110.4K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Democratic nominee James Talarico wins a plurality of votes cast in Tarrant County, Texas, in the November 2026 U.S. Senate general election.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Democratic nominee James Talarico wins a plurality of votes cast in Tarrant County, Texas, in the November 2026 U.S. Senate general election. This market resolves to NO if another candidate wins a plurality of votes in Tarrant County, if there is a tie, or if James Talarico is not on the general election ballot in Tarrant County. Resolution will be determined using official, certified election results published by the Texas Secretary of State or the Tarrant County Elections Administration. If certified results are delayed, the market will remain open until official canvassed figures are released. Background In the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election, State Representative James Talarico is the Democratic nominee running against Republican nominee and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Tarrant County, home to Fort Worth, is a critical swing county in Texas statewide elections, having narrowly flipped between the parties in recent major cycles. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 4, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 31, 10:29 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±23 pts.
Stale priceLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Stale price
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
- Price has not updated recently (stale)
- Low recent movement on light volume — quote may lag new information
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
30Low
Where the price path tends to go next508 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0