Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, 5:55 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 29.9% (little changed over 24 hours). It had Ṁ100 of order-book liquidity.
Data is not live — latest snapshot Sep 30, 5:55 PM ET
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria The election will be held on November 3, 2026. The market resolves YES if Dan Sullivan wins the general election and is elected to represent Alaska in the U.S.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria The election will be held on November 3, 2026. The market resolves YES if Dan Sullivan wins the general election and is elected to represent Alaska in the U.S. Senate. The market resolves NO if any other candidate wins. Resolution will be determined by official results from the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/candidates/). Background Sullivan, having been re-elected in 2020 with 53.9% of the vote, has declared his re-election bid. Three prominent election forecasters — Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball — currently rate the 2026 Alaska Senate race as "Solid Republican". Sullivan's second-quarter fundraising haul totaled $1.4 million, positioning him well for what appears to be a low-threat election cycle. Considerations A jungle primary election will be held on August 18, 2026, from which the top four candidates will advance to the general election. Sullivan has never been in the ranked-choice voting scenario that was implemented in 2022, so this will be his first election in which he faces the "squirrelly voting system that dark-money installed in Alaska" (according to Republicans). Former U.S. Representative from Alaska's at-large congressional district Mary Peltola has also expressed interest in running for this seat; I have a separate market on whether she will run. (Identical market to: source market)
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 30, 9:09 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±25 pts.
What's happening
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
- Price has not updated recently (stale)
- Low recent movement on light volume — quote may lag new information
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
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Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ811.6
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 29.9%
- Resolves
- Nov 3, 2026