Will Cristiano Ronaldo reach 1,000 career goals before he retires?
As of Oct 6, 2026, 10:26 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 88.1% (little changed over 24 hours). It had Ṁ52 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ100 of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Data is not live — latest snapshot Oct 6, 10:26 PM ET
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Cristiano Ronaldo scores his 1,000th official career goal in professional football before officially retiring. This market will resolve to NO if he officially announces his retirement from professional football (including both club and international levels) without having reached the 1,000-goal milestone.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Cristiano Ronaldo scores his 1,000th official career goal in professional football before officially retiring. This market will resolve to NO if he officially announces his retirement from professional football (including both club and international levels) without having reached the 1,000-goal milestone. Key Definitions and Rules: Official Goals: Only senior-level goals scored for his professional club teams (e.g., Sporting CP, Manchester United, Real Madrid, Juventus, Al Nassr) and the Portugal senior national team in official competitive fixtures or official FIFA-recognized international friendlies will count. Unofficial club friendlies, exhibition matches, and post-retirement testimonial matches do not count. Sources of Truth: Resolution will be verified using official counts published by major sporting databases and news outlets, such as Transfermarkt, ESPN, BBC Sport, or RSSSF. Retirement Definition: Retirement is defined as a formal announcement by Ronaldo or his official representatives that he is hanging up his boots and will no longer play professional football. If he remains a free agent without a club but does not formally retire, the market will remain open until he either signs with a new club, formally retires, or passes away. Background As of August 2026, Cristiano Ronaldo has scored 976 official career goals for club and country, leaving him 24 goals away from the historic 1,000-goal milestone. In an August 2026 interview with Vogue, the 41-year-old Al Nassr forward gave his strongest indication yet that the end of his playing days is near, stating that the current season will "probably be the last season of his professional career." Whether his physical longevity and goal-scoring rate will allow him to bridge the 24-goal gap before he officially retires remains one of the final storylines of his legendary career.
What could move this market next?
- The scheduled event takes placeDecember 31, 2028 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract resolves on the event's outcome.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 7, 12:05 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ52
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ739.1
- Category
- Uncategorized
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 88.1%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2028