ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDevelopingUpdated 10m ago

Will Colorado Amendment 83 (constitutional right to hunt and fish) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

As of Nov 1, 2026, 10:30 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 59.0% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 63 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
59.0%
Little changed over 24 hours
Resolving soon

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Stable

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

1K mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

63 mana

Total volume

176.9 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

A few accounts
50%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

4

Trades

8

over 27 days

Largest order

50 mana

99.3 mana traded across these 8 trades (last 27 days).

A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.

Recent trade activity$99.3 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market resolves YES if Colorado Amendment 83 (Constitutional Right to Hunt and Fish) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: 55% of votes cast on the measure (Colo. Const.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market resolves YES if Colorado Amendment 83 (Constitutional Right to Hunt and Fish) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: 55% of votes cast on the measure (Colo. Const. art. V §1(4)(b)); SOS: 'Requires 55% approval because it adds language to the state constitution'; Blue Book: 'Passes with 55 percent of the vote' Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Establishes a state constitutional right to hunt and fish (Blue Book). NO: Hunting and fishing continue as allowed under existing state and federal law (Blue Book). Results: resolves on the result certified by Colorado Secretary of State (official statewide canvass); takes effect on Governor's proclamation. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://leg.colorado.gov/ballots/constitutional-right-to-hunt-and-fish-2/files/blue-book

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesNovember 4, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Nov 1, 10:40 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±18 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
19Low
Where the price path tends to go next440 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0

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