Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
63 mana
Total volume
176.9 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
As of Nov 1, 2026, 10:30 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 59.0% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 63 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Source: Manifold price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
63 mana
Total volume
176.9 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
4
Trades
8
over 27 days
Largest order
50 mana
99.3 mana traded across these 8 trades (last 27 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
This market resolves YES if Colorado Amendment 83 (Constitutional Right to Hunt and Fish) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: 55% of votes cast on the measure (Colo. Const.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
This market resolves YES if Colorado Amendment 83 (Constitutional Right to Hunt and Fish) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: 55% of votes cast on the measure (Colo. Const. art. V §1(4)(b)); SOS: 'Requires 55% approval because it adds language to the state constitution'; Blue Book: 'Passes with 55 percent of the vote' Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Establishes a state constitutional right to hunt and fish (Blue Book). NO: Hunting and fishing continue as allowed under existing state and federal law (Blue Book). Results: resolves on the result certified by Colorado Secretary of State (official statewide canvass); takes effect on Governor's proclamation. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://leg.colorado.gov/ballots/constitutional-right-to-hunt-and-fish-2/files/blue-book
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Nov 1, 10:40 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±18 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.