Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
350 mana
Total volume
360 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Collins Dictionary's 2026 Word of the Year be AI-related?
As of Nov 3, 2026, 10:13 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 5.0% (down from 36.3% 24 hours earlier). It had 350 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
5.0%
−31.3 percentage points
over 24 hours36.3% → 5.0%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — only a few trades sit behind today's move.
Price historyManifold
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Too few trades
97%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
2
Trades
2
over 19 days
Largest order
350 mana
360 mana traded across these 2 trades (last 19 days).
Too few recent trades to say who is setting this price.
Recent trade activity$360 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if Collins Dictionary's official Word of the Year 2026 is AI-related, and NO if it is not. AI-related means the meaning of the winning word or phrase, as stated in Collins' announcement or in its Collins Dictionary definition, refers to artificial intelligence: AI models, chatbots, AI agents, AI-generated content, or people using or reacting to AI.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if Collins Dictionary's official Word of the Year 2026 is AI-related, and NO if it is not. AI-related means the meaning of the winning word or phrase, as stated in Collins' announcement or in its Collins Dictionary definition, refers to artificial intelligence: AI models, chatbots, AI agents, AI-generated content, or people using or reacting to AI. Examples that would have counted: 2023's "AI", 2025's "vibe coding". A word that is only sometimes used about AI (for example "brat") does not count unless Collins' own definition or announcement ties it to AI. Only the single overall Word of the Year counts, not the shortlist. Source: Collins' official announcement (collinsdictionary.com / the Collins Language Lovers blog), or major news coverage of it (Reuters, BBC, Guardian, CNN). Recent announcements were Nov 1 2023, Oct 31 2024 and Nov 6 2025. If Collins has not announced a 2026 Word of the Year by the close date, the market stays open until it does. If there is no announcement by Dec 31, 2026, it resolves N/A.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 31.3 percentage points over the last 24 hours (36.3% → 5.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 20, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Nov 3, 10:19 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±31 pts.
One big traderLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
One big trader
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
- One participant drove 97% of recent flow
- Move not broadly confirmed (2 participants)
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next400 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~3h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-31.37D-31.3
Related markets
Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
26%YESTrust 47
Manifold3.9K mana 24h
Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?
33%YESTrust 27
Kalshi$15.4K 24h
Will Anthropic release a new Claude Fable model before November 5, 2026?
19%YESTrust 29
Manifold1.3K mana 24h
Has OpenAI made a cryptanalytic breakthrough?
5%YESTrust 27
Manifold1.1K mana 24h
Will the worst day in cyber security in 2026 be after 10/21/2026?
78%YESTrust 44
Manifold150 mana 24h
GPT Astra 6.1+ Released By End of November 2026?
89%YESTrust 47
Manifold138.9 mana 24h