Will China restrict exports of erbium on December 31, 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 12:59 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 67.0% (little changed over 24 hours). It had Ṁ4 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ100 of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing has partial support: thin trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: thin trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 30, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 29, 1:06 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Low liquidity score (39)
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ4
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ4
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 67.0%
- 7-day range
- 67.0% – 67.0%
- Resolves
- Dec 30, 2026