Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesAugust 26, 2026 at 9:28 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 19, 10:44 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Probability by deadline
The same event, priced across deadline contracts on this venue.
- By Aug 2651.4%
- By Aug 26 (this market)52.4%
Extending the deadline from Aug 26 to Aug 26 adds about 1.0 percentage points of implied probability.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ66.8
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ66.8
- Category
- Crypto
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability