Will Arkansas Issue 1 (citizenship requirement to vote) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if Arkansas Issue 1 (A Constitutional Amendment to Be Known as "The Citizens Only Voting Amendment" and Providing That Only a Citizen of the United States Meeting the Qualifications of an Elector Under the Arkansas Constitution May Vote in an Election in this State.) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Simple majority of electors voting on the amendment (Ark. Const. art. 19 §22) Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: FOR: adds 'only a citizen of the United States' language to the Constitution's voter-qualification section; existing four qualifications unchanged. NO: AGAINST: Article 3 voter-qualification wording stays as is. Results: resolves on the result certified by County boards of election commissioners certify returns to the Secretary of State, who certifies statewide results. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 85% is a starting seed, not a forecast. Basis: Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll, Aug 11-12, 2026, 1,217 likely voters: 60% for / 27% against / 13% undecided (https://talkbusiness.net/2026/08/poll-voters-weigh-in-on-4-ballot-proposals/); similar 2024 measures passed in all 8 states.. Official source: https://www.sos.arkansas.gov/uploads/elections/Issue_No._1_HJR_1018_of_2026_.pdf_.pdf