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ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated just now

Will Apple become defunct before 2100?

Market probability
20.0%
Little changed over 24 hours
26758 days until the event deadline
Deadline: December 31, 2099 at 2:30 AM ET

Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Insufficient data

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2100 (12:00 AM UTC), Apple Inc. (or its primary corporate successor) is legally dissolved, liquidated, or permanently ceases all active commercial operations.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2100 (12:00 AM UTC), Apple Inc. (or its primary corporate successor) is legally dissolved, liquidated, or permanently ceases all active commercial operations. This market will resolve to NO if Apple Inc. (or its corporate successor) continues to operate active commercial businesses through December 31, 2099. Clarifications on Specific Scenarios: Acquisitions, Mergers, and Renaming: If Apple Inc. is acquired by another firm, merges with another company, undergoes corporate restructuring (such as establishing a parent holding company), or changes its legal name, this market will not resolve to YES, provided the core business continues operating. Bankruptcy: Filing for reorganization (such as Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the US) does not count as defunct, provided operations continue. However, filing for liquidation (such as Chapter 7 bankruptcy) resulting in the complete cessation of operations and the sell-off of all assets does count as defunct and will resolve the market to YES. Cessation of Brand: If the corporate entity is dissolved and the "Apple" brand is retired with no successor entity continuing its commercial operations, the market will resolve to YES. Sources of Verification: The status of Apple Inc. will be verified using official filings from the California Secretary of State (or the state/national registry of its active incorporation), SEC filings, or reporting from major global financial media outlets like Bloomberg, Reuters, or The Wall Street Journal. Background Founded in 1976 and incorporated in California in 1977, Apple Inc. has grown to become one of the most valuable multinational technology corporations in history. While Apple currently holds massive market capitalization, this long-term market tracks whether the company will survive the economic, technological, and regulatory shifts of the 21st century, or go the way of past corporate giants that ultimately collapsed, liquidated, or dissolved.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2099 at 2:30 AM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 26, 11:32 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
13Low
Where the price path tends to go next1091 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ0

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ0

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
20.0%
Resolves
Dec 31, 2099
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0

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