Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
74 mana
Total volume
1.5K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will any independent win a U.S. House seat in the 2026 elections?
As of Oct 11, 2026, 4:25 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 18.7% (down from 19.7% 24 hours earlier). It had 74 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
18.7%
−1 percentage point
over 24 hours19.7% → 18.7%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
44%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
9
Trades
15
over 3 days
Largest order
250 mana
1.7K mana traded across these 15 trades (last 3 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$1.7K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if at least one candidate running without a political party affiliation wins a voting seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 general elections, including any resulting runoff.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if at least one candidate running without a political party affiliation wins a voting seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 general elections, including any resulting runoff. “Independent,” “Unaffiliated,” and “No Party Preference” candidates qualify. Third-party candidates, non-voting delegates, and candidates elected under a party label who subsequently become independent do not qualify. Endorsements by political parties, previous party membership, and congressional caucus arrangements do not affect eligibility. Kevin Kiley and Bill Hill count if elected as independents. Resolution will use certified election results; otherwise resolves NO.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 4:34 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
19Low
Where the price path tends to go next991 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~29h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
74 mana
Liquidity
1K mana
Total volume
1.5K mana
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 18.7%
- 7-day range
- 18.7% – 19.7%
- Resolves
- Nov 3, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-1.07D-1.0
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