Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
17.5 mana
Total volume
1.1K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will an emergency service provider be sued because of an AI system by eoy2027?
As of Oct 25, 2026, 9:13 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 57.2% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 17.5 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
57.2%
Little changed over 24 hours
Stale priceNot live — snapshot Oct 25, 9:13 PM ET
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, with broad trading across many accounts.
Price historyManifold
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
24%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
17
Trades
33
over 61 days
Largest order
200 mana
845.4 mana traded across these 33 trades (last 61 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$845.4 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Context: New Orleans to use AI to answer 911 calls. Everyone in this reddit thread comments seems to think this is likely.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Context: New Orleans to use AI to answer 911 calls. Everyone in this reddit thread comments seems to think this is likely. Has to be in a country where the lawsuit actually means something (I.e. USA would count) Update 2026-08-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Merit: The strength or legal merit of the lawsuit will not be evaluated; any filed lawsuit counts. Defendant: The lawsuit must target an emergency service provider that actually uses the AI system.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 26, 12:59 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.
Stale priceLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Stale price
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
- Price has not updated recently (stale)
- Low recent movement on light volume — quote may lag new information
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
35Low
Where the price path tends to go next553 observed
- Illiquid / quiet97%
- Choppy / mean-reverting2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0
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